Multiple Hong Kong Stock Funds Rebound; High Cost-Effectiveness Remains After Adjustments
On October 16th, the Hong Kong stock market continued to move forward amidst fluctuations. By the close of the day, the Hang Seng Index fell slightly by 0.16%, with a drop of over 12% in nearly six trading days, while the more elastic Hang Seng Technology Index saw a decline of 18.27% during the same period. However, even with some pullbacks, the Hong Kong stock market has still reaped significant gains in this round of market movement, with the aforementioned two major indices rising by 16.8% and 26.51% respectively in the past month.
Boosted by some Hong Kong stocks that are heavily held by funds, the money-making effect of many Hong Kong stock funds has become apparent, with the increase of many fund products investing in Hong Kong stocks exceeding 30%. Some index funds in the direction of technology and the internet have rebounded to the forefront. At the same time, in terms of Hong Kong ETFs, in the past month, the main funds have been added to products tracking the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology, Hang Seng Technology, and Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend. However, some products have shown signs of "pocketing profits."
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Despite the turbulence in the Hong Kong stock market, many institutional investors still have confidence. Some industry insiders interviewed said that the recent adjustments were expected. Looking forward, the attractiveness of the Hong Kong stock market, known as the "valuation lowland," is gradually emerging. With the dual improvement of liquidity and fundamentals, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue the rebound.
Since mid-September, the Hong Kong stock market has started the upward channel ahead of A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index achieving multiple consecutive days of gains, rising by more than 34% from September 10th to October 7th; the Hang Seng Technology Index even saw an increase of 56.73% during the same period. However, after the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market continued to decline amidst fluctuations, and as of October 16th, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index have fallen by 12.18% and 18.27% respectively since the 8th.
The reporter noticed that the stock prices of many funds' heavy holdings also fluctuated, with some Chinese securities stocks being particularly obvious. Taking the China Merchants Securities (06099.HK) with the largest pullback after the holiday as an example, from October 8th to 16th, the stock fell by 56.14%, while in the previous 10 trading days, the increase exceeded 330%; CITIC Securities, Orient Securities, CICC, China Galaxy, and other companies have similar situations.
Overall, the Hong Kong stocks heavily held by funds still performed in this round of market movement. According to the statistics of the First Financial Daily, public funds held a total of 317 Hong Kong stocks in the second quarter. As of October 16th, 78 of these stocks have risen by more than 30% since September 10th. Among them, the unique heavy holding stock of Yimi Research Selection A, Sunac China (01918.HK), saw an increase of 227.66% during the period, while Vanke Enterprise (02202.HK), held by 5 funds, rose by 103.05%.
Among them, there are 8 Hong Kong stocks held by 100 or more funds, among which Meituan-W, held by 316 funds, saw an increase of 46.04% during the period. Xiaomi Group-W, Kuaishou-W, and China Shenhua, which are included in the heavy holding stocks by hundreds of funds, saw increases of 15% and 22%, respectively. Tencent Holdings, which rose by 12.02%, was held by 734 funds. In addition, the period increases of Cinda Bio, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and China Mobile were less than 10%.
Driven by the surge in the Hong Kong stock market, the money-making effect of many Hong Kong stock funds has become apparent. Wind data shows that during the period from September 10th to October 15th, 56 (only calculating initial funds, the same below) active equity funds investing in Hong Kong stocks rose by more than 30%, among which Huatai BaiRui New Economy Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen A rose by 42.23%, and Huatai BaiRui Hong Kong Stock Connect Era Opportunity A also rose by 39.36%.
In terms of pure Hong Kong stock index funds, excluding funds newly established in September, during the period from September 10th to October 15th, even with some pullbacks, the 170 products with available data still achieved an overall increase, with an average increase of 20.26%. Among them, 40% of the products rose by more than 20% during this period. The highest was the Yifangda CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF, which累计 increased by 49.75%; the period increases of Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme ETF and JPMorgan Hang Seng Technology ETF were also above 30%. In addition, many funds tracking the Hang Seng Technology Index rebounded to the forefront.It is worth noting that although the performance of Hong Kong stock funds has rebounded overall in the recent month's market trend, the Hong Kong stock market has been on a correction for a long time, so there are still many fund products with net value below the "water surface", and some have even been "halved". According to the first financial data organized by Wind, as of October 15, there are 11 pure Hong Kong stock index fund products with a discounted unit net value below 0.6 yuan.
Most of these funds have keywords such as "Hang Seng", "Hong Kong Stock Connect", "Technology", "Pharmaceutical" in their names. For example, since the establishment of products such as BoShi Hang Seng Medical Care ETF, Huaxia Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF, and Penghua China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical Health Comprehensive ETF in 2021, the cumulative return has been "halved", all becoming "40 cents funds". The scale of these products is not small, and it is obvious that many investors who prefer Hong Kong stocks have also been "trapped".
Can the Hong Kong stock market continue?
Although the Hong Kong stock market has recently increased in fluctuation, it still attracts funds from all walks of life to flow in through ETFs due to its high cost-effectiveness. Looking at the Hong Kong stock ETFs mentioned above, as of October 15, there has been a net inflow of 6.45 billion yuan in the past month, among which, tracking Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology, Hang Seng Technology, and Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividends are the main directions for capital to increase positions, and "absorbing gold" exceeds 1 billion yuan.
For example, Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF has a net inflow of 1.211 billion yuan, and JingShun Great Wall China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF, Huabao China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF, and JingShun Great Wall China Securities Guoxin Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend ETF have all "deposited" more than 700 million yuan.
However, some ETF products have also "pocketed" in the market fluctuations. For example, FuGuo China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF had a net inflow of nearly 500 million yuan during the holiday rise period, and a net outflow of 577 million yuan from October 8 to 15. In addition, Huaxia Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF and YiFangDa Hang Seng H-Share ETF and other products have "bled" more after the holiday, with net outflows of 2.6 billion yuan and 1.08 billion yuan, respectively.
The combination of capital entering the market and the increase in product net value has led to a rapid increase in the scale of some products. For example, the latest share of BoShi China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF is 1.6 billion yuan, while only 280 million yuan in the same period last month, an increase of 4.7 times in the past month. In addition, YiFangDa Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect New Economy ETF, YinHua China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF, JingShun Great Wall Hang Seng Consumption ETF, and Penghua China Securities Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF and other products have also increased by more than 2 times.
In addition, technology, Internet and other directions are also highly concerned, and many Hong Kong stock ETFs at the level of tens of billions of yuan have increased by more than 2 billion yuan in the past month. For example, Huaxia Hang Seng Internet Technology Industry ETF increased from 26.719 billion yuan to 31.18 billion yuan, and Huaxia Hang Seng Technology ETF also increased from 20.495 billion yuan to 24.659 billion yuan, with both increasing by more than 4 billion yuan in scale in the past month.
"The round of rises before the holiday was mainly due to a series of economic stimulus policies introduced by the government, as well as market expectations for the US interest rate reduction cycle, which together improved investors' risk appetite. At the same time, the Hong Kong stock market, which is a 'valuation lowland', is also more likely to attract capital inflows." Luo Jiaming, fund manager of Zhong Ou Fund, said to the first financial.
Luo Jiaming analyzed that, especially during the National Day period when Hong Kong Stock Connect funds were absent, the market's activity level remained high, indicating a significant increase in the participation of overseas investors and local Hong Kong funds. The subsequent adjustment is also expected. "On the one hand, after the market has experienced a rapid rise, there will naturally be a demand for profit-taking; on the other hand, the rise in US Treasury yields has also disrupted investors' expectations for the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts."From the current perspective, investment research professionals at China Merchants Fund believe that, based on data, the first wave of impulsive downward revision caused by the outflow of overseas transactional funds has come to an end. However, with the dual improvement of liquidity and fundamentals, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its rebound, with valuations potentially experiencing a fluctuating recovery. Among these, the market anticipates a significant warming of the domestic macro environment, and internet platform companies, which are closely related to the macro environment, are expected to benefit significantly.
A fund investment research professional in Shanghai, who communicated with Yicai, stated that since the Hong Kong stock market peaked in early 2021, the adjustment has been very substantial, and the current valuation is at a historical low, making it cost-effective. Moreover, according to observations by their team, weighty companies in the Hong Kong stock market, such as those in the internet sector, have shown a turning point in their operational trends, and the fundamentals can support the future performance of the Hong Kong stock market.
"Currently, the attractiveness of the valuation level in the Hong Kong stock market is gradually becoming apparent. In the medium term, the market may rise amidst twists and turns," Xing Cheng, fund manager of Hang Seng Frontier Hong Kong Stock Connect Select Mixed Fund, told Yicai. The profit level on the numerator side and the liquidity factor on the denominator side, which affect the pricing of the Hong Kong market, are both expected to see marginal improvements. The lower valuation level will not only provide a buffer for the market to withstand external fluctuations but also make the Hong Kong stock market more sensitive to potential growth repairs and policy signals, thus offering greater flexibility.
Luo Guoqing, fund manager of GF Hang Seng Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme ETF Fund, also told Yicai that from a liquidity perspective, Hong Kong assets are sensitive to global liquidity and domestic economic expectations. The Federal Reserve's unexpected interest rate cut of 50 basis points in September has led global funds to consider re-allocation, which is a liquidity benefit for Hong Kong assets. Secondly, from the perspective of economic fundamentals, the recent密集出台 of policies aimed at stabilizing growth is conducive to improving domestic economic expectations.
"After a rapid increase in the short term, the valuation repair of Hong Kong non-bank stocks has entered the middle to later stages, and the subsequent market will need to be driven by improvements in fundamental data after domestic policy implementation," Luo Guoqing believes that from a fundamental perspective, insurance is more sensitive to domestic economic expectations, mainly reflected in the fact that if economic expectations are reversed, interest rate losses and the expansion of the liability side of insurance will improve. Therefore, against the backdrop of improved global liquidity and domestic economic expectations, Hong Kong non-bank stocks are more aggressive.