ECB October Rate Decision Looms, UK CPI Data on Horizon
The economic data to be released this week, in order of importance from high to low, are: the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision, US retail sales data, and the UK's September CPI data. Here is a detailed interpretation of each.
This Thursday at 20:15, the ECB will announce the results of its October interest rate decision. The mainstream expectation is that the ECB will lower the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% and the main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 3.4%. Given that on September 12th, the ECB lowered the marginal lending facility rate and the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points, while the main refinancing rate was reduced by 60 basis points, the decrease in the main refinancing rate in this decision may exceed expectations. At 20:45 on the same day, ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference. It is important to pay close attention to her statements regarding GDP, inflation rate, and unemployment rate data. If her tone is dovish, the ECB's interest rate reduction trend is likely to continue. The latest unemployment rate in the Eurozone is 6.4%, higher than the 5% full employment standard, indicating a poor performance; the latest inflation rate is 1.8%, below the 2% moderate inflation standard, also indicating a poor performance; the latest GDP growth rate is 0.2%, close to zero growth, which is also a poor performance. From the weak core economic data, the probability of the ECB continuing its interest rate reduction trend in the fourth quarter is relatively high.
This Thursday at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will announce the September retail sales monthly rate, with the previous value at 0.1% and the expected value at 0.3%, anticipated to increase by 0.2 percentage points. Retail sales data mainly indicate changes in consumer spending power. The higher the data growth rate, the stronger the consumer spending power and willingness, suggesting the possibility of sustained economic recovery or sustained high inflation. For the US economy, data such as PCE, non-farm employment reports, and quarterly GDP annual rates are more important, with retail sales data serving more as a supplement to the macroeconomic indicator system. Looking at the quarterly data over the past year, the maximum value of US retail sales data is 1.1%, the minimum value is -1.1%, and the rest are within the symmetric upper and lower limits, showing a clear fluctuating characteristic. The market's expected value of 0.3% for this time is still within the fluctuation range, and the probability of the expectation being realized is relatively high.
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This Wednesday at 14:00, the UK Office for National Statistics will announce the UK's September CPI annual rate data, with the previous value at 2.2% and the expected value at 1.9%, anticipated to decrease by 0.3 percentage points. The UK's inflation rate data has basically remained stable, with the upper limit of inflation at 2.3% and the lower limit at 2% over the past five months, with a difference of only 0.3 percentage points. The market's expected 1.9% for this time has already broken through the lower limit, which does not conform to the current fluctuating trend, and the final announced value may deviate from the expected value. The Federal Reserve believes that the core inflation rate can more accurately reflect the level of prices, so market participants' attention to the UK's core inflation rate is increasing. The market expects the UK's September core CPI annual rate to decrease from 3.6% to 3.4%, but the final value is still far above the moderate inflation standard of 2%. In August, the Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time, with a reduction of 25 basis points, both in timing and magnitude lagging behind the Federal Reserve and the ECB. The main reason is that the UK's core inflation rate is still relatively high, and if there is a significant interest rate cut, the UK's high inflation problem may return.