Lithium Price Soars by 500%, Hits 496,500 Yuan per Ton
According to statistics from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, a professional information provider in the electric vehicle industry, lithium prices have soared by nearly 500% over the past year.
As one of the main references for global battery-grade lithium prices, the latest quote for domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 496,500 yuan per ton (nearly 500,000 yuan per ton), which has risen by 80% since the beginning of this year.
The global demand for lithium ore is rising rapidly.
On April 9, 2022, Tesla CEO Elon Musk retweeted a tweet about the ten-year increase in lithium prices and publicly stated:
"Lithium prices have risen to a crazy level, and Tesla may have to directly enter the large-scale mining and refining business of lithium mines unless the cost pressure is alleviated."
He also believes that: "Lithium itself is not scarce, because lithium is almost everywhere on Earth, but the speed of mining/processing is very slow."
Yes, that's right.
Sources of lithium:
Either by pumping brine containing the mineral from underground;
Or through mining.However, both of these processes are not environmentally friendly, with low efficiency and slow speed.
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But have you ever considered new mining methods? In fact, there are some.
It's not as easy as it seems to establish new mining and processing channels, and it takes a longer time.
On March 29th, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) released the latest edition of the "World Energy Transition Outlook: 1.5°C Path" report, which believes that under the scenario of temperature control at 1.5°C, the energy transition investment from 2021 to 2050 will be 131 trillion US dollars.
Under this condition, the International Renewable Energy Agency has given an estimate of the demand for key materials in 2050:
It is expected that by 2050, the demand for copper will reach 500 to 700 million tons per year, the demand for nickel will reach 5 to 8 million tons per year, the demand for lithium will reach 20 to 40 million tons per year, and the demand for neodymium will reach 0.2 to 0.5 million tons per year.
With the rapid increase in global lithium demand, companies are continuously accelerating the development of lithium resources, and car companies are also continuously laying out the upstream field.
In addition, some experts suggest that the demand for lithium should be reduced. By 2035, recycling old batteries can meet 16% of the annual supply demand, and new battery technologies can also reduce the demand for lithium at that time.
However, recycling batteries alone cannot meet market supply, and the shortage of lithium may continue for a long time.
Industry insiders pointed out, "The continuous rise in lithium ore prices will continue to drive the price of lithium carbonate to rise, and it is highly likely to break through historical highs. Some institutions believe that the price of lithium carbonate may even rise to 600,000 yuan within the next six months."According to data from Business Society, the current benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate is 511,000 yuan/ton, which is a 2.40% increase compared to 499,000 yuan/ton on September 1st, just a step away from the historical high of 512,500 yuan/ton.
Does China's new energy vehicle industry have a future?
Nowadays, our country's economy has achieved quite rapid development, which is fully demonstrated in various industries. In the domestic market, new energy vehicles are also "booming in both production and sales".
In the first half of 2022, the sales of new energy vehicles in our country have already exceeded 2.6 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times.
In addition, driven by carbon neutrality, the growth in wind power and photovoltaic installations has brought about increased demand for lithium reserves. With the emergence of the economic inflection point for lithium iron phosphate, its application in energy storage devices will significantly increase.
In 2022, the global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 10 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 54%. By 2026, the total sales are expected to reach around 25 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of 26% over four years.
SMM estimates that the global sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 will reach around 10 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 54%. Under various factors, the global sales of new energy vehicles in 2026 could exceed 25 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of 26%.
From the above, it is not difficult to see that new energy vehicles have become a trend.
In terms of infrastructure, China's electric vehicle infrastructure is far ahead of the world.According to data from the China Charging Alliance:
As of June 2022, a total of 3.918 million charging infrastructures have been built nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 101.2%. Among them, there are 1.528 million public charging piles, a year-on-year increase of 65.5%; and 2.39 million private charging piles, an increase of 133.4%.
Moreover, for every 5 cars sold on the market, one of them is a new energy vehicle. It can be seen that new energy vehicles have become the choice of more and more consumers.
According to the full carbon neutrality roadmap released by the International Energy Agency, the annual sales of new energy vehicles will reach 55 million by 2030. According to relevant information, the European Union will ban the sale of fuel vehicles by 2035, the UK will do so by 2030, the United States will do so between 2030 and 2035, and China will do so by 2035.
If the new energy vehicle market reaches 140 million vehicles in the next 10 years, with an average annual market increase of more than 10 million vehicles, then in the next decade or so, it will also become the main consumer force of new energy.