Broadcom's stock split is imminent
The bull market in U.S. stocks in the first half of this year can be said to be solely supported by artificial intelligence (AI) concept stocks, with a host of leading AI concept stocks also soaring. However, the "sky-high" stock prices have put pressure on investors to continue buying. As a result, several AI concept stocks have announced or will announce stock splits in the second half of the year. Earlier, Nvidia completed its stock split and continued to rise. Following closely, Broadcom also announced a stock split plan amid optimistic quarterly performance and a recent surge in stock prices.
Specifically, Broadcom plans to carry out a 1-for-10 stock split after the market closes on July 12th. The split stocks will begin trading before the market opens on July 15th.
Kirsten Spears, Broadcom's Chief Financial Officer, stated that the stock split will "make it easier for investors and employees to access Broadcom shares." As of July 1st, Broadcom reported $1,640.80, having risen 89.16% over the past year, with a year-to-date increase of 46.99%.
Signal
Analysis suggests that stock splits for high-priced stocks can issue more shares without affecting the company's overall valuation, often serving as a positive signal for stock performance. At the same time, stock splits can increase liquidity and attract more investors.
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Chen Dalong, a former U.S. stock trader at Fortress Hedge Fund and now managing his own quantitative fund, previously told Yicai's reporter: "Stock splits themselves do not lead to higher returns, hence they do not increase or decrease any enterprise value, and the total market value of the enterprise will remain unchanged. However, stock splits do help certain investors by making the shares affordable. Additionally, stock splits can increase stock liquidity, which helps reduce transaction spreads and thus attracts more funds to buy shares."
A previous analysis report from Bank of America also showed that although stock splits have no impact on the fundamentals of a company and do not affect the company's market value, historically, stock splits, especially positive ones, are often seen as bullish signals by the market. According to the bank's statistics since 1980, historically, S&P 500 companies that announced stock splits have significantly outperformed the index in the 3, 6, and 12 months following the initial announcement of their split plans. The stock prices of these companies rose an average of 25.4% over 12 months, while the S&P 500 rose an average of 11.9% during the same period.
For example, after Apple announced a 1-for-4 split in 2020, its stock price rose by more than 30% in the following year. Nvidia's stock price was around $600 when it announced a 1-for-4 split in 2021, and before the split took effect, the stock price had already risen to as high as $835. After the split, the stock price increased by more than 450%. Nvidia's stock split earlier this year once again proved this point. From the announcement of the split to its implementation, Nvidia's stock price rose by 27% during that period. After the split officially took effect, Nvidia even briefly became the publicly traded company with the highest market value in the world. Although it was subsequently subject to many profit-taking short sales, several Wall Street investment banks continued to raise their target stock prices for Nvidia.
Morgan Stanley again significantly raised its performance expectations and target stock price for Nvidia on July 1st, stating that the institution believes that Nvidia's performance data for at least this year will be very "strong" driven by unparalleled demand. Based on this, it raised its target stock price for Nvidia from $116 to $144 within 12 months and maintained its "buy" rating for Nvidia.
The analyst team at Bank of America also reiterated in its latest research report that any degree of decline in Nvidia's stock should be seen as a good opportunity to buy more stocks at a lower price. Investors should continue to be optimistic about this chip giant driving the AI boom, maintaining a "buy" rating and a target price of up to $150 for Nvidia. Eric Jackson, a hedge fund manager at EMJ Capital, even predicts that by the end of this year, Nvidia's stock price will reach $250, with a potential upside of about 100% compared to the current level.Since Broadcom announced its stock split, its share price has risen by 8%. However, if we calculate based on the historical average increase of about 25% within 12 months after a stock split by Bank of America, there is still considerable room for the stock to rise.
Can Broadcom's Performance Support a Higher Share Price?
In addition to the impact of the stock split itself, analysts are optimistic about Broadcom's performance after the split, which is more due to Broadcom's performance and revenue expectations. Earlier, Broadcom's second fiscal quarter results showed that, after adjustment, Broadcom's earnings per share were $10.96, higher than the analysts' expected $10.85. Broadcom's revenue also increased from $8.73 billion to $12.49 billion, while the average expectation from FactSet's survey of analysts was $12.06 billion. Broadcom also raised its full-year revenue forecast from the previously expected $50 billion to $51 billion.
Chen Dalong had previously told reporters that he expected Broadcom to split its stock soon. Now, with the split imminent, he analyzed to First Financial that before the current AI boom, Broadcom was already an impressive industry winner, mainly thanks to its CEO Tan's (Hock Tan) acquisition strategy. For example, in 2018, it acquired the software company California Technologies, and in 2019, it acquired the cybersecurity company Symantec. The largest acquisition was the software giant VMware at the end of last year. This has made Broadcom not only a chip manufacturer but a diversified technology platform company. Based on this, Broadcom's profit growth is expected to remain strong in the next few years. "Among them, Broadcom's acquisition of VMware is the most important driving factor recently, which has made a significant contribution to Broadcom's revenue soaring 43% year-on-year in the second quarter. VMware's revenue growth is also expected to continue to accelerate for the rest of the 2024 fiscal year," he said.
Of course, the most important thing, Chen Dalong believes, is Broadcom's development opportunities in the AI field. He said: "Among the world's eight largest AI network clusters, seven are currently using Broadcom's Ethernet. Broadcom itself estimates that thanks to the demand for AI networks, Ethernet-related revenue will grow by 40% this year. From a technical perspective, creating networks that can connect AI accelerators is very complex, and Broadcom can be said to be the best in this regard."
Finally, Chen Dalong also added that Broadcom's free cash flow situation is also very ideal. In terms of the second quarter, Broadcom generated $4.4 billion in free cash flow, accounting for 36% of total revenue. If we exclude the cash used by Broadcom for restructuring and integration, the free cash flow reaches $5.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, accounting for 42% of revenue.
However, Chen Dalong also pointed out some risks for Broadcom's share price in the future. He told First Financial reporters that excluding VMware's contribution, Broadcom's revenue in the second quarter will only grow by 12% year-on-year, that is, without the revenue brought by the acquisition of VMware, Broadcom's "growth story" may not be so attractive. In addition, some of Broadcom's businesses are still weak, such as a 27% decrease in server storage connection revenue in the second quarter, and a 39% decrease in broadband revenue. Moreover, the sales of Broadcom's top five major customers account for 40% of its total sales, with Apple alone accounting for 17%. This over-reliance on a few customers may also bring potential risks. In the future, NVIDIA may also become a strong competitor for Broadcom in the fields of Ethernet switch chips and customized AI accelerators.
However, no matter what, Broadcom is still one of the stocks that has benefited the most from this round of AI boom for Wall Street investment banks.
Goldman Sachs analysts also recently wrote in a research report: "Like NVIDIA, we regard Broadcom as a key part of the ongoing AI infrastructure construction." Bank of America also said that both Broadcom and NVIDIA are the best choices in the AI field. After releasing dazzling performance reports, Broadcom still has greater potential. Broadcom is very likely to become the next member of the US stock market's trillion-dollar club, and Ethernet networks are regarded as an important growth driver for the company.
Morgan Stanley analyst Moore (Joseph Moore) recently set a "bull market target" for Broadcom, expecting it to rise to $2,292 by June 2025. He said that if the stock split is taken into account, this number will become $229.20. But no matter what the displayed share price is, the expectation means that Broadcom's current share price of $1,650 still has a lot of room to continue to rise.